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Project Selection. A Theory

Sebastian Marshall posed the question: how do we choose better projects?

I couldn’t think of anything practical aside from mundane answers like, “well it depends on the particular person and what they value in a project”.

So I thought more abstract, and came up with not an answer, but an economic perspective.

A person posing this question probably has a lot of opportunities in front of them and difficulty deciding amongst the complexities of the factors that go into choosing a worthwhile project. However, there are a lot of opportunities in our lives that when we see it, we see that it’s a no brainer decision to choose that project. These no-brainer projects exist and are abundant, because there are an unlimited ways to create value in the world. So theoretically, as a person’s project abundance/opportunity approaches infinity, there is also an infinite amount of no-brainer, huge win projects.

Take for example the difference between me, a celebrity like lil-wayne, and then… for example... Elon Musk. The difference in project opportunity between me and Lil-wayne is huge. So if I increased my project opportunity to equal Lil Wayne's, I would maybe have 20 more huge win, no brainer projects than I do right now. At the same time, Lil Wayne’s project abundance is very little compared to Elon Musk. If Lil Wayne increased his project opportunity to Elon Musk’s level, he would more than 10x the amount of huge win, no-brainer projects that are available to him on the table.

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